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IMD predicts normal monsoon, forecasts 97 per cent rainfall

IMD predicts normal monsoon, forecasts 97 per cent rainfall

The country is likely to see normal monsoon rains, though there's a threat from an anomalous warming in the Indian Ocean, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The IMD predicted 97 per cent chance of near-normal showers.

Earlier, on April 4, private weather forecasting agency Skymet also predicted normal monsoon keeping it at 100 percent, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent.

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy.

The IMD bases it's optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon is unlikely.




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It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains.

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.

Monsoon is considered as "normal" if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA.